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Future interest rate decisions will be taken one at a time, says BoC deputy governor

鈥楨very decision is taken one at a time at this point鈥

After announcing a rate hike this week, Bank of Canada deputy governor Paul Beaudry says the central bank plans to take future interest rate decisions one at a time.

Beaudry made the comments in a news conference on Thursday, which followed a speech he delivered to the Greater Victoria Chamber of Commerce.

The deputy governor鈥檚 public appearance comes one day after the central bank announced it was raising its key interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point, ending its pause on rate hikes and bringing the rate to 4.75 per cent.

The move fuelled speculation among economists that another rate hike is on the way next month, but Beaudry said nothing is predetermined.

鈥淓very decision is taken one at a time at this point,鈥 Beaudry said.

鈥淭here鈥檚 a set of data that we鈥檒l be looking at, we made that clear. And then we let the markets make their bets.鈥

The decision to raise interest rates again wasn鈥檛 completely unexpected, given a recent string of hot economic data. But some economists had expected the central bank to wait a little longer to get more data before hiking rates again.

In an interview with The Canadian Press, Beaudry said the Bank of Canada is facing difficult decisions amid economic uncertainty, which means its moves may surprise people at times.

鈥淲hen we have difficult decisions 鈥 you take a jump at some point,鈥 Beaudry said.

鈥淚t鈥檚 going to surprise some people.鈥

Earlier this year, the Bank of Canada announced it was pausing its rate-hiking cycle to account for the lag that exists between interest rate increases and their effects on the economy.

But economic data released since April 鈥渢ipped the balance鈥 for the central bank in favour of raising interest rates again, the deputy governor said in his speech.

鈥淲e鈥檝e had an accumulation of evidence 鈥 on many fronts, over time and across a whole set 鈥 that tell us that inflation seems to be more sticky and it鈥檚 going to be harder to get it down to that two per cent,鈥 Beaudry said.

鈥淚t鈥檚 that accumulation of evidence that brought us to our (rate) decision.鈥

Most economists estimate the lag between a rate hike and its economic impact is somewhere between one and two years. The majority of the Bank of Canada鈥檚 rate hikes happened less than a year ago, raising the question: why hike rates again?

The deputy governor, who will be leaving his position next month to return to his academic position at the University of British Columbia, said the central bank thinks the economy is too overheated, even when it takes the lags into consideration.

鈥淲e take into account all those lags, and what we should expect given the lags, and things were kind of more persistent,鈥 Beaudry said.

In his speech, the deputy governor says stronger growth, a tight labour market, and a rise in inflation in April suggest interest rates were not high enough.

Last week, Statistics Canada reported real gross domestic product grew at an annualized rate of 3.1 per cent in the first quarter.

Beaudry said the rapid rise in consumer spending took the central bank by surprise, while buyers appear to be returning to the housing market.

Progress made on the inflation front was also slightly reversed in April, as the annual rate ticked up to 4.4 per cent.

Meanwhile, the labour market has remained remarkably resilient, with an unemployment rate of five per cent.

鈥淲hen we looked at the dynamics in inflation combined with excess demand, that really has increased the risk that we are not going to be able to get inflation down without a bit more monetary tightening,鈥 Beaudry said.

Nojoud Al Mallees, The Canadian Press

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