The World Bank reported on Monday that oil prices could be pushed into 鈥渦ncharted waters鈥� if intensifies, which could result in increased food prices worldwide.

The World Bank鈥檚 Commodity Markets Outlook found that while the effects on oil prices should be limited if the conflict doesn鈥檛 widen, the outlook 鈥渨ould darken quickly if the conflict were to escalate.鈥�

The attack on Israel by the militant organization Hamas and the ensuing Israel military operation against Hamas have raised fears of .

And the threat of escalation looms. Israeli tanks and infantry as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced a 鈥渟econd stage鈥� in the war. Hamas officials have called for more , including Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon.

The World Bank report simulates three scenarios for the global oil supply in the event of a small, medium or large disruption.

Effects should be limited if the conflict doesn鈥檛 widen in a 鈥渟mall disruption鈥� scenario 鈥� as oil prices are expected to decline from current levels of roughly $90 a barrel to an average of $81 a barrel next year, the World Bank estimates.

But during a 鈥渕edium disruption鈥� 鈥� equivalent to the disruptions experienced during the Iraq war 鈥� the global oil supply of about 100 million barrels a day would decline by 3 million to 5 million barrels per day, driving oil prices up possibly by 35%.

In a 鈥渓arge disruption鈥� scenario 鈥� comparable to the Arab oil embargo of 1973 鈥� the global oil supply would shrink by 6 million to 8 million barrels per day and prices could go up by 56% to 75%, or to $140 to $157 a barrel, according to the report.

Indermit Gill, the World Bank鈥檚 chief economist, said Russia鈥檚 invasion of Ukraine has already had disruptive effects on the global economy 鈥渢hat persist to this day.鈥�

鈥淚f the conflict were to escalate, the global economy would face a dual energy shock for the first time in decades 鈥� not just from the war in Ukraine but also from the Middle East,鈥� Gill said.

Ayhan Kose, the World Bank鈥檚 deputy chief economist, said higher oil prices will inevitably result in higher food prices.

鈥淚f a severe oil price shock materializes, it would push up food price inflation that has already been elevated in many developing countries鈥� as a result of Russia鈥檚 Ukraine invasion, Kose said. 鈥淎n escalation of the latest conflict would intensify food insecurity, not only within the region but also across the world.鈥�

Overall, oil prices have risen about 6% since the start of the conflict. And gold 鈥� a commodity that tends to rise in periods of conflict 鈥� has increased roughly 8%, according to the World Bank.

Some analysts are skeptical that the U.S. would experience massive , since U.S. oil production is at an all-time high.

At a Bloomberg event on Thursday, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the Biden administration was monitoring the economic consequences of Israel鈥檚 war against Hamas carefully.

鈥淪o far, we have not yet seen much that has global consequences,鈥� she said, but if the war spreads 鈥渙f course there could be more meaningful consequences.鈥�

International Energy Agency Executive Director said between Russia鈥檚 invasion and the latest violence between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, 鈥渘o one can convince me that oil and gas are safe and secure energy choices for countries or consumers.鈥�

Fatima Hussein, The Associated Press