Consumers holding out for big deals 鈥� and some much-needed relief from soaring costs on just about everything 鈥� may be disappointed as they head into the busiest shopping season of the year.

While retailers are advertising sales of 30%, 50% and 70% off everything from TVs to gadgets, many items will still cost more than they did last year because of inflation and finding a true bargain may prove to be a challenge.

From September through October, shoppers paid roughly 18% more for furniture and appliances than they did a year ago, according to a recent major data analysis by analytics company DataWeave, which tracks prices for hundreds of thousands of items across roughly three dozen retailers including Amazon and Target. For toys, they paid roughly 2% more.

Things looked a bit better for consumers shopping for clothing 鈥� they paid nearly 5% less compared with last fall, according to DataWeave. Meanwhile, prices held steady for footwear.

鈥淚t鈥檚 just a weird time for everybody to figure out what is the right price, and what is the real price,鈥� said Nikki Baird, vice president of strategy of Aptos, a retail technology firm. 鈥淐onsumers are really bad at discount math, and retailers are fully aware of it and do everything they can to take advantage of it.鈥�

William Wang, 24, who teaches high school math, says he鈥檚 more likely to notice price increases on everyday items 鈥� like his quesadilla that now costs $8 at his local deli 鈥� than for gifts he鈥檚 going to spend money on once a year.

鈥淚 do feel like everything鈥檚 more expensive,鈥� said the Brooklyn, New York, resident. 鈥淏ut I mainly keep track of it with small items, like food.鈥�

The latest government retail sales report shows retail sales rose last month even when adjusting for inflation. That underscores some resiliency among shoppers heading into the Black Friday weekend, the kickoff to the season.

But cracks are forming.

Third-quarter earnings results from major retailers show shoppers aren鈥檛 willing to pay full price and waiting for deals. Kohl鈥檚, Target and Macy鈥檚 all noted Americans have also slowed their spending in the past few weeks.

It鈥檚 a dramatic change from when shoppers began their holiday items as early as October for fear they wouldn鈥檛 get what they needed amid pandemic-infused clogs in the supply chain. They were also flush with cash from government stimulus money. Retailers were struggling to bring in items so they didn鈥檛 need to discount as much.

Michael Liersch, head of advice and planning at Wells Fargo, said this holiday shopping season, it鈥檚 more likely that things will 鈥渁ppear discounted or feel discounted, or it will seem like there are big offers鈥� but that between inflation and 鈥渟hrinkflation鈥� 鈥� when manufacturers quietly shrink package sizes without lowering the price 鈥� it鈥檚 often not the case.

That trend played out in a recent spot check by DataWeave of different items. For example, a Cuisinart two-speed blender, listed at $59.99 but discounted at 25%, was available for $44.99 at grocery chain Fred Meyer. But it was still more expensive than last year鈥檚 blender, available for $39.99, after a 20% discount off a lower list price of $49.99.

At Kohl鈥檚, shoppers paid more for Nunn Bush Baker Street men鈥檚 dressy shoes this past fall than last year when discounts were actually bigger, and the list price was lower. The shoes were available for $79.99 after a nearly 16% price cut from the $95 suggested price; last year, the shoes were available for $59.99 after a 29% discount on a lower list price of $85.

Kevin Brasler, executive editor of Consumers鈥� Checkbook, a nonprofit consumer organization, noted its researchers spent 33 weeks starting Feb. 9 tracking sale prices at 25 major retailers. They found most stores鈥� sale prices 鈥� even those that promote big savings 鈥� are bogus discounts, with retailers offering the same 鈥渟ale price鈥� more than half the time. In fact, at many retailers, the 鈥渞egular price鈥� or 鈥渓ist鈥� price listed is seldom, if ever, what shoppers pay, Brasler said.

Still, inflation-battered shoppers like Yoki Hanley are willing to take their chances and hold out for a bargain. So far, she doesn鈥檛 feel like she鈥檚 getting good deals for her eight grandchildren and plans to delay her buying until the last week before Christmas.

鈥淓verything went up so my little nest egg disappeared a whole lot quicker than I expected,鈥� said the St. Croix resident. 鈥淚 will wait until the last minute. They鈥檒l get it, but it鈥檚 coming late.鈥�

鈥擜nne D鈥檌nnocenzio And Cora Lewis, The Associated Press