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Big NDP names exit before B.C. election, what does that mean for the party?

Conservative Leader John Rustad has used the departures as an attack point
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The New Democrats are campaigning for another term in British Columbia鈥檚 provincial election but without many of the familiar faces that have graced lawn signs of elections past.

About a quarter of the NDP cabinet ministers who held a portfolio when the election campaign kicked off in September won鈥檛 have their names on the ballot when B.C. residents go to the polls on Oct. 19.

That includes veterans and high-profile politicians who spent decades in the legislature, and who held hefty portfolios. Their departures were announced when the NDP was considered a clear favourite, but the folding of the Opposition BC United campaign at the end of August has led to a tightening of the race with the B.C. Conservatives.

Harry Bains, Bruce Ralston, Katrine Conroy and Rob Fleming were all first elected in 2005 and have served five terms in the legislature, but will not be on the ballot this year.

Neither is George Heyman, first elected in 2013, Mitzi Dean elected in 2017, nor Murray Rankin elected provincially in 2020.

B.C. Conservative Leader John Rustad has used the departures as an attack point against NDP Leader David Eby, saying 鈥渉alf of his cabinet has resigned and is not running.鈥 In fact, seven out of Eby鈥檚 27 cabinet colleagues are not standing again.

鈥淗e obviously does not have the confidence in his own team to do a cabinet shuffle and put people in position. What does that say about David Eby鈥檚 leadership?鈥 said Rustad over the weekend.

University of the Fraser Valley political scientist Hamish Telford said even with the changes, the retiring heavy-hitters come mostly from ridings that are NDP strongholds and are likely to remain that way.

鈥淩ecruitment is easier when it鈥檚 a strong riding, because if you win the nomination, there鈥檚 a pretty good chance you鈥檒l win the election. So, they can recruit good candidates,鈥 he said.

鈥淭hose candidates, of course, (it鈥檚 their) first campaign, new campaign teams, but they鈥檒l be able to get the information from the old candidates, and because they鈥檙e safe ridings it鈥檚 usually not too much of a problem.鈥

Telford said such turnover is common ahead of an election campaign, and it鈥檚 not surprising that some ministers would choose to retire after decades on the job.

Ralston, who is retiring as forests minister after representing Surrey, said he felt now was a good time to pass the torch.

鈥(My) only advice would be to keep the public interest in mind. That鈥檚 the most important thing. Respond to what people want and what people need,鈥 he said to would-be legislators ahead of the official campaign.

Environment Minister Heyman said his decision not to run for re-election in Vancouver came after more than a decade in politics and environmental and union leadership.

鈥淚鈥檒l be 75 years old when the election鈥檚 held in 2024,鈥 he said in July. 鈥淚 would like to slow down a bit and spend more time with my family.鈥

Telford said that among the seats being vacated by sitting NDP ministers, the Kootenay riding of outgoing Finance Minister Katrine Conroy could be more at risk.

鈥淭here have been changes in the Kootenay riding boundaries for this time around, and that鈥檚 going to be maybe a tougher one to hold. It鈥檚 not as safe an NDP seat as say, those ones that have retired in Surrey or Victoria,鈥 he said.

Conroy told reporters on Sept. 10 she was comfortable with her decision to step away, even after the political shakeup when BC United Leader Kevin Falcon suspended his party鈥檚 campaign and placed his support behind the provincial Conservatives.

鈥淲e also have some incredible bench strength coming in as candidates. The person who鈥檚 running in my place is a mayor in our region who has had years of experience,鈥 she said referring to Steve Morissette, the mayor of Fruitvale who is running for the NDP in the new riding of Kootenay-Monashee.

鈥淵es, things have been turned on their head, but I think you just have to look at what we鈥檝e been doing since we鈥檝e been elected in 2017 and we鈥檙e going to continue to support people in this province. That鈥檚 our goal.鈥

Telford said some of the ministers announced their plans not to seek re-election before the collapse of the BC United, at a time when polling suggested the NDP might 鈥渞un the table across the province.鈥

Since then, the race has become much tighter between the NDP and the B.C. Conservatives, but Telford said the change puts more pressure on Eby, rather than individual candidates.

鈥淲e know how campaigns go provincially, all the focus is on the leader, and so, it鈥檚 really going to be down to David Eby and his team. I think that鈥檚 where the real risk comes for the NDP,鈥 he said.

鈥淒avid Eby is running his first campaign. He didn鈥檛 have to campaign hard to get the leadership of the party and now he鈥檚 running his first provincial election campaign, presumably with quite a few new advisers in place.

鈥淎nd I think that鈥檚 probably more of a challenge than losing these cabinet ministers. Cabinet ministers are locally well known, but at the provincial level they are not especially household names.鈥

Telford said removing the BC United Party as a contender could make it easier for the NDP to hold on to some of its strongholds.

鈥淎s long as they鈥檙e solid NDP ridings, it should not be a problem, and it may have been more of a challenge in places if it had turned into a three-way race with (BC United), Conservatives and the NDP, because in a three-way race funny things can happen,鈥 he said.

In addition to the exiting ministers, at least five other sitting NDP legislators are not standing for re-election. Former cabinet minister Selina Robinson, who quit the NDP in March, citing antisemitism in the caucus, and now sits as an Independent but is not running again.

Fleming, the outgoing transportation minister, said he would continue to support the New Democrats after retiring from his riding in Victoria.

鈥淚 never thought I would actually be a member of the legislative assembly for 20 years. That wasn鈥檛 the game plan,鈥 he said on Sept. 12.

鈥淪o, when is the right time for anybody in public life who still enjoys it, and I still do, to leave? I don鈥檛 know, but it felt about right.鈥





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