For the second year in a row, Earth will almost certainly be the hottest it鈥檚 ever been.
Meanwhile, Canada鈥檚 environment commissioner says the country is still not on track to meet its commitments under the Paris climate agreement.
Ottawa has promised to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to be 40 to 45 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030 but thus far they have only fallen seven per cent below 2005 levels.
In a report tabled today Jerry DeMarco says his office looked at 20 of the 149 measures from the government鈥檚 2030 Emission Reductions Plan progress report.
Only nine of those were on track, another nine were facing challenges, and the other two had significant barriers like delays in meeting milestones.
The latest report mirrors many of the findings and concerns DeMarco raised a year ago. However he found the government had moved on the majority of recommendations made in last year鈥檚 report.
The report comes as, for the first time, the globe this year reached more than 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) of warming compared to the pre-industrial average, the European climate agency Copernicus said Thursday.
鈥淚t鈥檚 this relentless nature of the warming that I think is worrying,鈥� said Carlo Buontempo, director of Copernicus.
Buontempo said the data clearly shows the planet would not see such a long sequence of record-breaking temperatures without the constant increase of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere driving global warming.
He cited that contribute to exceptionally warm years like last year and this one. They include El Nino 鈥� the temporary warming of parts of the Pacific that changes weather worldwide 鈥� as well as volcanic eruptions that spew water vapor into the air and variations in energy from the sun. But he and other scientists say the long-term increase in temperatures beyond fluctuations like El Nino is a bad sign.
鈥淎 very strong El Nino event is a sneak peek into what the new normal will be about a decade from now,鈥� said Zeke Hausfather, a research scientist with the nonprofit Berkeley Earth.
News of a likely second year of record heat comes a day after U.S. Republican Donald Trump, who has called climate change a 鈥渉oax鈥� and promised to boost oil drilling and production, . It also comes days before the next U.N. climate conference, called COP29, is set to begin in Azerbaijan. Talks are expected to focus on how to generate trillions of dollars to help the world transition to clean energies like wind and solar and avoid more warming.
Also on Thursday, called for increased funds to adapt to global heating and its consequences. It found that the $28 billion spent worldwide to adapt to climate change in 2022 鈥� the latest year the data is available 鈥� is an all time high. But it鈥檚 still far short of the estimated $187 to $359 billion needed every year to deal with the heat, floods, droughts and storms exacerbated by climate change.
鈥淓arth鈥檚 ablaze,鈥� said U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres in a pre-recorded statement marking the report鈥檚 release. 鈥淗umanity鈥檚 torching the planet and paying the price鈥� with the vulnerable most affected, he said.
鈥淔rankly, there is no excuse for the world not to get serious about adaptation,鈥� said UNEP鈥檚 director Inger Andersen. 鈥淲e need well-financed and effective adaptation that incorporates fairness and equity.鈥�
Buontempo pointed out that going over the 1.5 degree Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) threshold of warming for a single year is different than the goal adopted in the 2015 Paris Agreement. That goal was meant to try to cap warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) since pre-industrial times on average, over 20 or 30 years.
said that since the mid-1800s on average, the world has already heated up 1.3 degrees Celsius (2.3 degrees Fahrenheit) 鈥� up from previous estimates of 1.1 degrees (2 degrees Fahrenheit) or 1.2 degrees (2.2 degrees Fahrenheit). That鈥檚 of concern because the U.N. says the greenhouse gas emission reduction goals of the world鈥檚 nations still aren鈥檛 nearly ambitious enough to keep the 1.5 degree Celsius target on track.
The target was chosen to try to stave off the worst effects of climate change on humanity, including extreme weather. 鈥淭he heat waves, storm damage, and droughts that we are experiencing now are just the tip of the iceberg,鈥� said Natalie Mahowald, chair of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at Cornell University.
Going over that number in 2024 doesn鈥檛 mean the overall trend line of global warming has, but 鈥渋n the absence of concerted action, it soon will,鈥� said University of Pennsylvania climate scientist Michael Mann.
Stanford University climate scientist Rob Jackson put it in starker terms. 鈥淚 think we have missed the 1.5 degree window,鈥� said Jackson, who chairs the Global Carbon Project, a group of scientists who track countries鈥� carbon dioxide emissions. 鈥淭here鈥檚 too much warming.鈥�
Indiana state climatologist Beth Hall said she isn鈥檛 surprised by the latest report from Copernicus, but emphasized that people should remember climate is a global issue beyond their local experiences with changing weather. 鈥淲e tend to be siloed in our own individual world,鈥� she said. Reports like this one 鈥渁re taking into account lots and lots of locations that aren鈥檛 in our backyard.鈥�
Buontempo stressed the importance of global observations, bolstered by international cooperation, that allow scientists to have confidence in the new report鈥檚 finding: Copernicus gets its results from billions of measurements from satellites, ships, aircraft and weather stations around the world.
He said that going over the 1.5 degree Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) benchmark this year is 鈥減sychologically important鈥� as nations make decisions internally and approach negotiations at the annual U.N. climate change summit Nov. 11-22 in Azerbaijan.
鈥淭he decision, clearly, is ours. It鈥檚 of each and every one of us. And it鈥檚 the decision of our society and our policymakers as a consequence of that,鈥� he said. 鈥淏ut I believe these decisions are better made if they are based on evidence and facts.鈥�
鈥攚ith a file from Canadian Press
