A new report warns of labour shortages as skilled immigrants are leaving Canada, including British Columbia, pointing to the cost of housing as a possible factor. 

The study titled "The Leaky Bucket 2024," published by the Conference Board of Canada and Institute for Canadian Citizenship, looks at what it calls the onward migration of immigrants leaving Canada by either returning to their previous country of residence or moving to a new country. 

Building on research first published in 2023, the study finds that the share of immigrants leaving Canada has reached an all-time high, with 34 per cent of onward migrants leaving Canada in the first five years. Overall, one in every five immigrants landing in Canada will decide to leave in 25 years.

This onward migration has a distinct geography. Ontario has the largest share of onward migrants with 51 per cent, followed by British Columbia with 21 per and Quebec with 15 per cent. This fact reflects that those three provinces attract the most immigrants; accordingly, it is not surprising that those provinces also see the largest share of onward migration.

Geography also helps to explain why British Columbia is losing onward migrants.

According to the study, Canada's most populous cities — Montréal, Toronto and Vancouver — have the largest proportion of onward migrants as a share of total onward migration in their respective provinces. Onward migrants leaving British Columbia "are more likely to have resided in Vancouver than any other city or town in that province."

This fact suggests that the cost of housing might be a contributing factor to onward migration, as Vancouver is among the most unaffordable cities in the world in terms of housing. 

While the report does not directly identify the cost of housing as a factor pushing immigrants out of British Columbia, the report positions itself as a response to commentators who "have convinced Canadians that the volume of immigrants explains our foremost challenges: unaffordable housing, inaccessible healthcare, crime—even traffic."

In fact, the report directly challenges critics of immigration, whose voices have grown louder in recent years. 

"How do people preaching about immigration’s harmful effects on housing or healthcare or inflation reconcile their views with the fact that economic immigrants—tradespeople who build our homes, nurses who care for our loved ones, truckers who facilitate commerce, entrepreneurs who spur innovation—are increasingly reaching for the door?"

The report notes that Canada has historically used immigration as "vehicle" to "advance GDP growth, ease labour shortages, improve the worker-to-retiree ratio, and enrich multiculturalism," it reads. "Onward migration, particularly in the early years, jeopardizes Canada’s ability to meet these goals."

One reason for this assessment stems from the fact that almost half of onward migrants (48.1 per cent) had entered Canada through the economic immigration category. 

Yet economic migrants, "those hand-selected for their unique ability to support Canada’s growth and development—are most likely to leave," it reads. 

The report notes that retaining economic immigrants is a key priority for most provinces to fill labour shortages in important sectors. That includes British Columbia through its provincial nominee program and Premier David Eby recently signalled that B.C. wants even more control over immigration, traditionally a federal responsibility. 

The importance of immigrants to B.C.'s economic future also became apparent earlier this year, when the provincial government passed legislation to help speed up the integration of immigrants by easing the recognition of foreign credentials. 

But onward migration threatens to undermine efforts to fill those gaps, according to the report.

"These (onward migrants) are not desperate people fleeing destitution for the comfort of Canada’s generosity," it reads. "Rather, they are a globally coveted talent pool with global options. When we fail to retain newcomers, we are essentially helping them to contribute to another country’s success."

The report urges decision-makers to review immigration policies.

B.C. has the second-highest share of onward migrants because it ranks among the provinces attracting the most immigrants, the report notes. In Ontario and British Columbia, a larger proportion of onward migrants are staying beyond five years compared to all other provinces.

"This means that these provinces retain the immigrants they receive for longer," it reads. 

Atlantic Canada, on the other hand, has experienced the opposite effect.

"This region has the lowest share of immigrant arrivals but sees the highest proportion of immigrants leaving within the first five years," it reads.