Ships loaded with grain departed Ukraine on Tuesday despite that ensures safe wartime passage of critical food supplies meant for .
The U.N. said three ships carrying 84,490 metric tons of corn, wheat and sunflower meal left through a humanitarian sea corridor set up in July. The corridor, brokered by Turkey and U.N., was seen as a breakthrough that would ensure Africa, the Middle East and parts of Asia would from the Black Sea region during Russia鈥檚 war in Ukraine.
Russia cited allegations of a Ukrainian drone attack against its Black Sea fleet in announcing over the weekend that it was . The Russian Defense Ministry said Monday that ship traffic from ports in southern Ukraine was halted, calling the movement 鈥渦nacceptable.鈥
But a total of 14 ships sailed that day, including one chartered by the U.N. World Food Program to bring wheat to Ethiopia, which along with neighboring Somalia and Kenya, is badly affected by the .
Analysts say Russia still is bound by the terms of the grain deal it signed, which include a commitment not to target civilian vessels that are taking part in the agreement. Such an attack also would violate international law.
鈥淎lthough it is not currently participating in that deal, it is still a signatory to it. Russia鈥檚 interests are not going to be served in any way, shape or form by attacking vessels and groups in the international community,鈥 said Munro Anderson, head of intelligence of the risk consultancy company Dryad Global.
Russian President Vladimir Putin emphasized to reporters Monday night that Moscow was 鈥渘ot saying that we are ending our participation鈥 in the grain deal but 鈥渨e are talking about the fact that we are suspending鈥 it. The move drew outcry from Ukraine, the U.S. and other allies.
Anderson said Russia was 鈥渦nlikely to mount any overt action against any vessels operating within the parameters of the original deal,鈥 though the risks were as high as ever of Russia or targets at sea.
However, the future of the initiative is unclear as the risks have potentially increased, Anderson said. Now, the U.N. operation is moving to prioritize a large backlog of ships waiting for inspections off Istanbul, he said.
鈥淚 think at the moment, the situation is such that no vessels inbound or currently signed up to the initiative that are not already in processing are going to proceed until there鈥檚 further clarity on the Russian position on continued participation,鈥 he said.
Plus, in terms of insuring cargo ships picking up Ukrainian grain, 鈥渞ates are going to go up and likely be prohibitive,鈥 said Joseph Glauber, a senior research fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute in Washington.
After suspending its part of the grain agreement, 鈥渋t is likely that Russia will use this as a tool of negotiation to secure what it needs from the deal,鈥 Anderson said. 鈥淲e know that Russia has been looking to and to seek a sanctions reprieve on those so it can do so effectively.鈥
While Western sanctions on Russia don鈥檛 affect its grain exports and a parallel wartime deal was meant to clear the way for Moscow鈥檚 food and fertilizer shipments, some .
Russia鈥檚 primary concern is likely that vessels would go unchecked and could be used to bring in weapons, which is why a Joint Coordination Center was established in Istanbul to coordinate checks between the warring nations, Turkey and the U.N.
Russia has announced plans to conduct its own inspections of ships that have already cleared the joint checks in Istanbul, but further details were not known.
鈥擟ourtney Bonnell, The Associated Press