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How climate change is fueling Maui鈥檚 devastating fires

鈥榃hat these 鈥 catastrophic wildfire disasters are revealing is that nowhere is immune to the issue鈥
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Smoke and flames fill the air from raging wildfires on Front Street in downtown Lahaina, Maui on Tuesday, Aug. 9, 2023. Maui officials say wildfire in the historic town has burned parts of one of the most popular tourist areas in Hawaii. County of Maui spokesperson Mahina Martin said in a phone interview early Wednesday says fire was widespread in Lahaina, including Front Street, an area of the town popular with tourists. (Alan Dickar via AP)

A dangerous mix of conditions appear to have combined to make the wildfires blazing a path of destruction in Hawaii particularly damaging, including high winds, low humidity and dry vegetation.

Experts also say climate change is increasing the likelihood of more extreme weather events like what鈥檚 playing out on the island of Maui, where dozens of people have been killed and a historic tourist town was devastated.

鈥淚t鈥檚 leading to these unpredictable or unforeseen combinations that we鈥檙e seeing right now and that are fueling this extreme fire weather,鈥 said Kelsey Copes-Gerbitz, a postdoctoral researcher at the University of British Columbia鈥檚 faculty of forestry. 鈥淲hat these 鈥 catastrophic wildfire disasters are revealing is that nowhere is immune to the issue.鈥

What鈥檚 fueling them?

Major differences in air pressure drove unusually strong trade winds that fanned the destructive flames, according to meteorologists.

Trade winds are a normal feature of Hawaii鈥檚 climate. They鈥檙e caused when air moves from the high-pressure system pressure north of Hawaii 鈥 known as the North Pacific High 鈥 to the area of low pressure at the equator, to the south of the state.

But Hurricane Dora, which passed south of the islands this week, is exacerbating the low-pressure system and increasing the difference in air pressure to create 鈥渦nusually strong trade winds,鈥 said Genki Kino, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service office in Honolulu.

Hawaii鈥檚 state climatologist, Pao-Shin Chu, said he was caught off guard by the impact Dora had from roughly 500 miles (800 kilometers) away.

鈥淗urricane Dora is very far away from Hawaii, but you still have this fire occurrence here. So this is something we didn鈥檛 expect to see,鈥 he said.

Strong winds, combined with low humidity and an abundance of dry vegetation that burns easily, can increase the danger of wildfire, even on a tropical island like Maui.

鈥淚f you have all of those conditions at the same time, it鈥檚 often what the National Weather Service calls 鈥榬ed flag conditions,鈥欌 said Erica Fleishman, director of the Oregon Climate Change Research Institute at Oregon State University.

How climate change plays a role

鈥淐limate change in many parts of the world is increasing vegetation dryness, in large part because temperatures are hotter,鈥 Fleishman said. 鈥淓ven if you have the same amount of precipitation, if you have higher temperatures, things dry out faster.鈥

Clay Trauernicht, a fire scientist at the University of Hawaii, said the wet season can spur plants like Guinea grass, a nonnative, invasive species found across parts of Maui, to grow as quickly as 6 inches (15 centimeters) a day and reach up to 10 feet (3 meters) tall. When it dries out, it creates a tinderbox that鈥檚 ripe for wildfire.

鈥淭hese grasslands accumulate fuels very rapidly,鈥 Trauernicht said. 鈥淚n hotter conditions and drier conditions, with variable rainfall, it鈥檚 only going to exacerbate the problem.鈥

Stronger hurricanes

Climate change not only increases the fire risk by driving up temperatures, but also makes stronger hurricanes more likely. In turn, those storms could fuel stronger wind events like the one behind the Maui fires.

That鈥檚 on top of other threats made worse by climate changes.

鈥淭here鈥檚 an increasing trend in the intensity of hurricanes worldwide, in part because warm air holds more water,鈥 Fleishman said. 鈥淚n addition to that, sea levels are rising worldwide, so you tend to get more severe flooding from the storm surge when a hurricane makes landfall.鈥

While climate change can鈥檛 be said to directly cause singular events, experts say, the impact extreme weather is having on communities is undeniable.

鈥淭hese kinds of climate change-related disasters are really beyond the scope of things that we鈥檙e used to dealing with,鈥 UBC鈥檚 Copes-Gerbitz said. 鈥淚t鈥檚 these kind of multiple, interactive challenges that really lead to a disaster.鈥

Claire Rush, The Associated Press

33563406_web1_20230809120836-64d3c11ec51f89dde3ba0a30jpeg
People watch as smoke and flames fill the air from raging wildfires on Front Street in downtown Lahaina, Maui on Tuesday, Aug. 8, 2023. Maui officials say wildfire in the historic town has burned parts of one of the most popular tourist areas in Hawaii. County of Maui spokesperson Mahina Martin said in a phone interview early Wednesday says fire was widespread in Lahaina, including Front Street, an area of the town popular with tourists. (Alan Dickar via AP
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This GOES-18 fire temperature composite satellite image taken 6:30 p.m. EDT. on Wednesday, Aug. 9, 2023 and released by NOAA, shows hot land surface temperatures in red on the Hawaii Islands. A dangerous mix of conditions appear to have combined to make the wildfires blazing a path of destruction in Hawaii particularly damaging, including high winds, low humidity and dry vegetation. (NOAA via AP)




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