Ties between India and the U.S. had never looked better than they did in June, when President Joe Biden honored Prime Minister Narendra Modi with a pomp-filled state visit. The relationship was among the most consequential in the world and 鈥渕ore dynamic than at any time in history,鈥� Biden declared as he stood next to Modi at a press conference.
Those ties could now face their biggest test in recent years, after U.S. prosecutors this week accused an Indian official of directing a plot to assassinate a prominent Sikh separatist leader living in New York City.
As the case unfolds in a New York court, rather than behind closed doors, the two governments may struggle to control the narrative and the fallout, even though it was unlikely to cause more serious long-term damage, experts said.
鈥淭hey are going to try people (in court). That will pose problems 鈥� Quite obviously, things are not going to be the same,鈥� said G Parthasarthy, a retired Indian diplomat.
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But more damningly, it鈥檚 the second such accusation in months, following Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau鈥檚 allegations that the Indian government may have been linked to the killing of a Sikh separatist near Vancouver in June.
According to an unsealed indictment released Wednesday, U.S. officials became aware in the spring of a plot to kill Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, an American citizen who advocates for the creation of a sovereign Sikh state. India considers him a terrorist.
The plot, which was foiled by U.S. officials who set up a sting, emerged just days after the killing of Canadian citizen Hardeep Singh Nijjar, and was meant to precede a string of other politically motivated killings in the United States and Canada, according to the indictment.
Under the indictment, Nikhil Gupta, 52, an Indian national, faces charges including murder for hire. The Indian official was not charged or identified by name in the court filing, which described him as a 鈥渟enior field officer鈥� with responsibilities in security management and intelligence.
The goal was to kill at least four people in the two countries by June 29, and then more after that, prosecutors contended on Wednesday.
鈥淭he US allegations certainly bolster Canada鈥檚 case from the vantage point that that incident can no longer be viewed as a one-off,鈥� said Derek Grossman, an Indo-Pacific analyst at the RAND Corporation.
Both Biden and Trudeau are said to have raised the matter with Modi when they met at the Group of 20 Summit in September in New Delhi.
India鈥檚 reaction to the two cases has differed sharply. With Canada, it exchanged harsh words as it refuted claims that Trudeau made publicly after returning to Ottawa, with both sides expelling diplomats.
With the U.S., New Delhi鈥檚 response has been more cooperative.
India鈥檚 foreign ministry said this week it had set up a high-level committee to investigate the U.S. accusations, adding that the alleged link to an Indian official was 鈥渁 matter of concern鈥� and 鈥渁gainst government policy.鈥�
鈥淚ndia鈥檚 response to Canada was anger, denial, and defiance. Its response to the U.S. was mild and subdued,鈥� said Michael Kugelman, director of the South Asia institute at the Wilson Center, a think tank.
This is partly explained by the fact that 鈥渇or India, the U.S. just matters much more and so the power imbalance is very stark,鈥� said Milan Vaishnav, director of the South Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
鈥淪econdly, this is now a judicial process in the U.S where authorities infiltrated this plot and were able to document it in granular detail鈥�, which Trudeau struggled to do when he made the allegation in Canada鈥檚 Parliament without providing public evidence, Vaishnav added.
U.S. officials have said intelligence sharing among the 鈥淔ive Eyes鈥� alliance - made up of Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom and the United States - contributed to Trudeau鈥檚 statements. There were no further details.
Trudeau鈥檚 intentions were also widely questioned by Indian officials at the time, who suggested it was a move to shore up domestic political support among Canada鈥檚 Sikhs, who comprise 2% of its population. New Delhi has often complained of Western nations giving free rein to Sikh separatists and not quashing threats to India鈥檚 national security, but those accusations have predominantly been aimed at Ottawa.
Still, the case is particularly sensitive given the high priority that Biden has placed on boosting ties with India, and the recent zeal from Western powers to court India as a major partner in their push to counter China鈥檚 rising assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific and beyond.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Thursday said it was an ongoing legal matter and he couldn鈥檛 comment in detail but it was 鈥渟omething we take very seriously鈥�, adding that officials looked forward to seeing the results of the Indian investigation.
A senior administration official, who spoke to the Associated Press this week on the condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive exchanges with Indian government, said The White House first became aware of the plot in late July. They added that high-level officials had met with Indian counterparts after they found out about the plot to underscore that India needed to investigate, hold those responsible accountable and give assurances that this would not happen again, or it could permanently damage the trust established between our two countries.
Even after the administration found out about the assassination plot, it didn鈥檛 scale down engagement with India and 鈥渉igh-level meetings went on as scheduled,鈥� said Kugelman.
The Biden administration 鈥渉as gone out of its way to bolster this partnership鈥� by rolling out business and defense deals, including the transfer of highly sensitive defense technology which was approved by Congress recently, Vaishnav said.
Human rights groups and political opponents have raised concerns of democratic backsliding in India, accusing Modi鈥檚 government of stifling dissent and targeting minorities, but the U.S. has been steadfast in advancing ties.
鈥淔rom the perspective of Washington, they have made what is now a 25 year-long long bet that India鈥檚 rise would be good for the world and U.S. interests. The obvious looming factor here is China,鈥� Vaishnav said. 鈥淗aving said that, there are many people in the U.S. system who are shocked - because arranging and executing a targeted assassination of citizen of a partner country is verboten. It doesn鈥檛 happen often.鈥�
Analysts say the two countries will have to navigate difficult diplomatic terrain in the coming months.
鈥淏oth will want to work through this in a way that doesn鈥檛 hurt the relationship. But the US won鈥檛 simply shrug off such a shocking alleged act, and India won鈥檛 back down in its effort to pursue what it views as dangerous security threats,鈥� Kugelman said.
Clues as to where things stand, and what impact this has made on India-U.S. ties, could come as soon as January, as India has invited Biden to be the chief guest at its Republic Day parade.
If Biden doesn鈥檛 accept, it could be seen as a possible snub or signal that the U.S. isn鈥檛 ready to move on just yet - but given a heavy January schedule that includes his State of the Union address, it could also just be for scheduling reasons, Kugelman said.
However, 鈥渋f he were to accept鈥� then that would deliver a much-needed confidence boost to the relationship,鈥� he added.
Krutika Pathi, The Associated Press
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